Algunas proyecciones interesantes sobre lo que vendra en los próximos 10 años: de los Quantum Sensors va los Quantum Computers. El mercado de hardware cuántico crecerá 3x más rápido que el de sensores
Quantum Sensors vs. Quantum Computers: The Next 10 Years
Quantum technologies are evolving at a rapid pace. Spurred by the promise of exponentially faster computation and classically unachievable sensitivity, billions of dollars are being poured into the development of quantum computers and quantum sensors. However, despite their shared use of quantum phenomena, including tunneling, entanglement, and superposition, each market's characteristics and ten-year outlook are quite distinct. Drawing on comprehensive reports covering both quantum technologies, IDTechEx separates hype from reality to compare the opportunities over the next decade.
What are quantum computers and quantum sensors?
Quantum
hardware platforms enable the initiation and manipulation of quantum
states. When interfaced with more established electronics, quantum
phenomena enable new computing and sensing capabilities. Quantum
computers require large numbers of entangled logical qubits to
exponentially reduce computation times, with multiple competing
modalities aiming to reduce error rates and enhance scalability.
While
the sensitivity of quantum states to external factors creates
challenges for quantum computer developers, the interaction of states
with properties such as motion, magnetic field, and gravity facilitates
quantum sensing. Similar quantum hardware platforms can be adapted into
quantum sensors and quantum computers. This includes superconducting
circuits, photonic systems, cold-atoms, and nitrogen-vacancy centers in
diamond. More detail about these technology platforms is covered in the
IDTechEx's reports "Quantum Sensors Market 2024-2044" and "Quantum Computing 2023-2033".
Application specific vs vertical agnostic
Few
would deny that hype about quantum computers far outweighs that of
quantum sensors. While quantum computers regularly hit the headlines
while featuring in science fiction and popular culture (including a
recent episode of the TV series Black Mirror), quantum sensors are yet
to enter public consciousness. Even within the quantum technology
community, quantum computing often overshadows interest in quantum
sensing - look no further than most industry conference agendas and
scientific abstracts.
Quantum computers attract
most of the interest due primarily to their simple elevator pitch: an
exponential reduction in computation time enabling far more complex
problems to be solved than at present. Everyone uses a computer, so can
easily appreciate the prospect of a much faster and more capable
computer. The boom of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) serves
only to amplify interest in quantum computing. Furthermore, while the
specific problems quantum computing is best suited to tackle within each
industry vary, the additional processing capabilities of a quantum
computer is largely market vertical agnostic.
In
contrast to this 'one-to-many' technology-to-application mapping of
quantum computers, quantum sensors are far more application specific.
Indeed, the 'quantum sensing' category represents a wide range of
devices, each with a limited number of specific use cases. Device types
include magnetic field sensors, gyroscopes, gravimeters, photodetectors,
and even atomic clocks. Use-cases for these sensor types range from
remote current sensing in electric vehicles and biomagnetic brain
scanning to underground mapping and precision navigation. As such, the
value offered by quantum sensing is specific within the industries for
aerospace, automotive, geophysical surveying, and medical imaging. This
technology-to-application specificity leads to a more fragmented
ecosystem than quantum computing, diluting hype and competition.
Public and research interest in "quantum computing" arguably supersedes that of "quantum sensing". Source: IDTechEx
Government funding vs private funding
Column
inches dedicated to new technology and market opportunity don't always
correlate. The relative lack of hype in quantum sensing doesn't reflect a
lesser market opportunity, at least in the near and medium term - in
fact, quite the opposite is more likely true. For example, one of the
biggest influences on the speed at which quantum technology will come to
market is funding.
Globally, government spending
is typically divided between computing, sensing (and imaging), and
communications (networking). In many instances, spending committed to
sensing, component manufacturer, and imaging is comparable to, if not
greater than, that for quantum computing. This allocation of funding
suggests that governments see societal benefits in supporting the
development of quantum sensors.
Behind
the headlines and the buzzwords, combined funding into quantum sensing,
imaging, timing, and components is comparable, if not greater than for
quantum computing. IDTechEx chart. Data sources: UK - Quantum Challenge
Fund, US - Quantum National Strategy, EU - Quantum Flagship website and
CORDIS database, Japan - Kaken database (keyword search).
On
the other hand, the scale of private investment achieved by quantum
computing companies in recent years has ballooned. Multiple quantum
computer developers completed US$100 million dollar funding rounds - no
doubt aided by the rise in public interest, as well as end-users from
within the automotive, finance, chemical, and logistics industry.
However, some of the most compelling business models see firms seeking
to leverage quantum platforms for both computing and sensing, including
established sensor companies such as Honeywell and newer players such as
Infleqtion (Cold Quanta) and Qant.
Overall,
the trend in quantum technology funding paints a mixed picture. While
public money is broadly split equally between quantum computing and
quantum sensing, the flow of private investment is far more focused on
quantum computing. This could go on to limit the speed at which quantum
sensing technology can be commercialized long term, as many of the
challenges for component manufacture and miniaturization depend on high
capital investment into specialist fabrication facilities. While
significant progress is being made to miniaturize quantum sensing
technology using semiconductor and MEMS fabrication techniques, many
existing fabs have not invested in going quantum - instead focusing on
more established, high-volume applications. Without more 'quantum fabs, '
opportunities for spin-outs to operate with a fabless business model are limited, which could stall the industry.
High-volume vs high value
A
crucial difference in the material opportunity for the quantum sensing
and quantum computing markets is that while the former has the potential
to sell high volumes of hardware, the latter depends on the shared
access high-value hardware. Precision and secure navigation applications
could drive high-volume adoption of quantum sensors and atomic clocks.
Source: IDTechEx
A quantum sensing application
with the potential for high hardware sales volumes is timing and
inertial navigation systems. Combinations of atomic clocks and quantum
gyroscopes/accelerometers can provide precision navigation capabilities,
even in GNSS (global navigation satellite systems) denied environments.
Until now, chip-scale atomic clocks have remained expensive due to the
complexity of manufacturing, thus limiting adoption. However, as more
quantum foundry and fabrication facilities become available and
investment into component and manufacturing optimization rises, IDTechEx
forecast that chip-scale atomic clocks will become mainstream. The
clearest addressable market would be within autonomous vehicles, where
more precise sensors improve safety and redundancy.
As
for quantum computing, most players are confident that for the next
decade, most users will access the hardware via the cloud. Unlike some
quantum sensors, particularly with chip-scale architectures, many
quantum computers require large cooling infrastructure and space for
readout electronics. As such, hardware providers will offer access
through public and private clouds, often installing a limited number of
systems into co-located data centers. Longer term, the install base for
quantum computers 'on-premises' is expected to rise, but not until the
tech is clearly out-performing classical hardware for value-generating
problems.
A
cloud-based quantum computing ecosystem will limit the number of
hardware systems required for the next ten years. Source: IDTechEx
Market size vs. CAGR
Overall,
while the value of quantum computer hardware will remain high (in some
instances, millions of dollars per system), the high-volume markets for
quantum sensors are expected to give this category the edge in market
size for the next ten years. Even excluding tunneling magneto resistance
(TMR) sensors, which have been rapidly adopted for remote current
sensing within electric vehicles, by 2024 IDTechEx forecasts the quantum
sensor market will generate more than six times the revenue of quantum
computing hardware.
Looking further to 2034, and
the market share achieved by both technologies is expected to begin
equaling out. By 2034, users finding value in quantum computer use is
expected to have grown significantly, increasing the demand on install
base. Moreover, many quantum sensing markets outside navigation and
timing could even begin to saturate - as new applications in gravity
sensing and medical imaging remain relatively niche. The result would be
a faster-growing quantum computer hardware market.
Even
excluding established TMR sensors, in 2023 the market for quantum
sensor hardware in 2023 is more than six times that of quantum computing
hardware. Source: IDTechEx
Despite
still remaining smaller in total size by 2034, IDTechEx predicts the
market for quantum computer hardware will grow three times faster than
the quantum sensor market in the next ten years. Source: IDTechEx
The
caveat to these conclusions is the strong dependence on how quantum
technology will be priced. Many players admit that pricing models for
quantum computing are very challenging to produce while the quantum
commercial readiness level remains low - and the price point required
for quantum sensors to compete with others in the automotive and
consumer markets is also up for debate. Finally, it would be naive to
ignore the interplay between the quantum sensor market and the quantum
computer market. Often quantum sensors are required to readout-out
qubits in quantum computers, and the optimization of fundamental
components such as lasers, gas cells, and photodetectors will be crucial
to the success of both markets.
More technical and commercial details and twenty-year market forecasts can be found in IDTechEx's comprehensive reports "Quantum Sensors Market 2024-2044" and "Quantum Computing 2023-2033".
The quantum sensors market report includes 17 individual forecast lines
with technology categories, including: atomic clocks, magnetic field
sensors, gyroscopes, gravimeters, and image sensors - covering
superconducting, photonic, diamond, cold-atom, atomic vapor, and other
key hardware platforms. The quantum computing report includes eight
different technology categories, including: superconducting, photonic,
trapped-ion, neutral atom, silicon spin, topological, diamond defect,
and annealers.
Visit www.IDTechEx.com to find out more. Sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports.
This
article is from "Technology Innovations Outlook 2024-2034", a
complimentary magazine of analyst-written articles by IDTechEx providing
insights into a number of areas of technology innovation, assessing the
landscape now and giving you the outlook for the next decade. You can
read the magazine in full at www.IDTechEx.com/Magazine.
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Upcoming Free-to-Attend Webinar
The Next Five Years of Quantum Technology: Hype vs. Reality
Dr
Tess Skyrme, Senior Technology Analyst at IDTechEx and author of this
article, will be presenting a free-to-attend webinar on the topic on Tuesday 28 November 2023 - The Next Five Years of Quantum Technology: Hype vs. Reality.
In
this webinar, IDTechEx will break down the quantum technology market
and demystify some of the hype versus reality surrounding quantum
computing, sensing and communications technology.
The following themes will be addressed:
- What is the state of the quantum technology market in 2023?
- Quantum Computing: Benchmarking friends and foes
- Quantum Sensing: Sensitivity vs. SWAP-C
- Quantum Communications: Trading on trust
Click here to find out more and register a place on one of the three sessions.
https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-article/quantum-sensors-vs-quantum-computers-the-next-10-years/30162
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