Es un estudio previo, si es una mutación, mas agresiva o que se expande más rapido puede ser una explicación del caso del verano en España..
Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020
Abstract
A variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in early summer 2020, presumably in Spain, and has since spread to multiple European countries. The variant was first observed in Spain in June and has been at frequencies above 40% since July. Outside of Spain, the frequency of this variant has increased from very low values prior to 15th July to 40-70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom in September. It is also prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France. Little can be said about other European countries because few recent sequences are available. Sequences in this cluster (20A.EU1) differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions, including the mutation A222V in the spike protein and A220V in the nucleoprotein. We show that this variant was exported from Spain to other European countries multiple times and that much of the diversity of this cluster in Spain is observed across Europe. It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries.
Una variante del SARS-CoV-2 surgió a principios del verano de 2020, presumiblemente en España, y desde entonces se ha extendido a múltiples países europeos. La variante fue observada por primera vez en España en junio y ha estado en frecuencias superiores al 40% desde julio. Fuera de España, la frecuencia de esta variante ha aumentado desde valores muy bajos antes del 15 de julio hasta el 40-70% en Suiza, Irlanda y el Reino Unido en septiembre. También prevalece en Noruega, Letonia, los Países Bajos y Francia. Poco se puede decir de otros países europeos porque hay pocas secuencias recientes disponibles. Las secuencias de este grupo (20A.EU1) difieren de las secuencias ancestrales en 6 o más posiciones, incluyendo la mutación A222V en la proteína punta y A220V en la nucleoproteína. Mostramos que esta variante fue exportada desde España a otros países europeos en múltiples ocasiones y que gran parte de la diversidad de este cúmulo en España se observa en toda Europa. Actualmente no está claro si esta variante se está propagando debido a una ventaja de transmisión del virus o si la alta incidencia en España seguida de la difusión a través de los turistas es suficiente para explicar el rápido aumento en múltiples países.
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La epidemiología genómica en tiempo real nos permite rastrear la propagación de un patógeno a través de las mutaciones que acumulado en el genoma durante la replicación viral. Ella gran mayoría de estas mutaciones son de poca funcionalidad relevancia y simplemente sirven como marcadores neutrales de que
puede utilizar para vincular variantes relacionadas. Algunas mutaciones, como...siempre, son adaptables y aumentan su frecuencia porque los aumentar la tasa de transmisión del virus. Tal adaptación...
se espera que después de una zoonosis cuando un patógeno es aún no está completamente adaptado a su nuevo huésped (Diehl et al., 2016;van Dorp y otros, 2020) o en patógenos endémicos que esla inmunidad preexistente de la capa, como es común por ejemplo en estacional en los virus de uenza (Rambaut y otros, 2008).
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Durante un brote dinámico, es particularmente diculto para decir sin ambigüedades si una variante particular está en......que se pliega en la frecuencia porque tiene una ventaja intrínseca...o debido a factores epidemiológicos (Grubaugh y otros, 2020). De hecho, es una tautología que cada novela un gran cúmulo debe haber crecido recientemente y múltiples líneas de pruebas independientes se requieren en apoyo de una
un potencial de transmisión intrínsecamente elevado.
El cúmulo que describimos aquí { 20A.EU1 (S:A222V) { fue dispersado a través de Europa por los viajeros que iban y venían España y las importaciones repetidas podrían ser sucias para explicar el rápido aumento de la frecuencia y el desplazamiento de otros variantes. En julio y agosto, España informó de la aproximación...
apenas 20 y 90 casos por cada 100.000 habitantes por semana, respectivamente. Tomando la incidencia notificada al valor nominal y asumiendo que los turistas que regresan tienen una incidencia similar, esperamos más de 50 presentaciones en el Reino Unido en julio y más de 200 en agosto (véase el cuadro SI para el turismo resúmenes (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, 2020), para. el volumen de viaje del talón es aproximadamente 2-3 veces más alto, ver Fig. S8). Análogamente, Suiza esperaría que alrededor de 15 y 40
introducciones en julio y agosto. Mientras que estos números son sólo estimaciones aproximadas de orden de magnitud que no cuenta para el subregistro, el establecimiento estocástico de nuevas cadenas de transmisión, y el sesgo de determinación, que indican, sin embargo, que la amplia dispersión de esta es plausible que se agrupen en toda Europa. Si estas introducciones se produjo en las demografías que tenían más probabilidades de en-en un comportamiento arriesgado en España y seguir participando en ese comportamiento en el hogar, sólo los factores epidemiológicos podría explicar el surgimiento del 20A.EU1.
Por otro lado, observamos una consistente y rápida el crecimiento de esta variante en múltiples países y su libre... La cantidad es superior al 50% en algunas localidades. En los países donde se ha producido más de una introducción, se aperas que se han expandido en múltiples introducciones. Su la frecuencia en el Reino Unido ha seguido aumentando incluso...ter de viajes sin cuarentena se suspendió y la principal El período de viaje de verano terminó. Por lo tanto, esta variante podría transmiten más rápido que las variantes competidoras. En particular, el caso las cifras en toda Europa comenzaron a aumentar rápidamente alrededor de la al mismo tiempo que la variante 20A.EU1 comenzó a dominar en España, Suiza y el Reino Unido (datos de secuencia limitada están disponibles para otros países y no podemos sacar conclusiones claras), véase la figura S2. Sin embargo, esta aceleración de transmisión también coincidió con la llegada de la caída
y los factores estacionales son una alternativa
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This work was supported by the SNF through grant numbers 31CA30_196046 (to RAN, EBH) and 31CA30_196267 and core funding by the University of Basel. SeqCOVID-SPAIN is funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III project COV20/00140, Spanish National Research Council and ERC StG 638553 to IC.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
This is an analysis of publicly available data and no IRB approval is needed.
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
Um fio excelente do grupo que fez parte do estudo @marivarella @oatila @mab_sp125 @luizacaires3 @mellziland @f_eduh https://t.co/dRoGM4WI9q
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1?fbclid=IwAR2Ry76U2DD01h126N0vDQjrVGt9CPYZ2DB9y-faWZe0T3bn6t_7wV9FvQ4
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @icoes: Este es el hilo de nuestros colegas suizos, leedlo, es muy bueno!
Este es el hilo de nuestros colegas suizos, leedlo, es muy bueno!
Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020 https://t.co/glVYa7Jm4L
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @resd9: Lo conté por aquí, pero pronto se publica como artículo científico: la Segunda Ola comenzó en Cataluña en junio, mientras Torra,…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
@JamesWard73 @BristOliver @cramsay2010 A single strain that’s relatively recently introduced from Spain has become dominant in the U.K. and other European countries. May have been due to tourism
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @mab_sp125: O estudo em nenhum momento diz que a mutação causou segunda onda. Eles, no máximo, levantam a hipótese que essa variante pod…
RT @angie_rasmussen: THIS is how you report a new variant in circulating SARS-CoV-2: a thorough exploration of the evidence and all possibl…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
@SellaTheChemist @WanderingGaia The origins detailed in this COG-UK analysis https://t.co/VHHVBTro8l earlier this week, and the new one on the 'summer' strain https://t.co/cgYTBQzSB4 really do show how travel has driven the pandemic.
RT @angie_rasmussen: THIS is how you report a new variant in circulating SARS-CoV-2: a thorough exploration of the evidence and all possibl…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020 https://t.co/dLRBwgZrpY"
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
@BristOliver The strain from Spain that came mainly on the plane. https://t.co/XhHfm0O4AE
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
@sekeris @SteliosPetsas δεν είναι και τόσο ανυπόστατο https://t.co/QTCITLI44Z
RT @Thomas_Wilckens: Emergence & spread of new #coronavirus variant in EU summer 2020 https://t.co/Qo8jWk33Vd Opposing public media: NO evi…
Emergence & spread of new #coronavirus variant in EU summer 2020 https://t.co/Qo8jWk33Vd Opposing public media: NO evidence this strain spreads faster, nor that tourist are the source. NOTE up to 96% infections asymptomatic, i.e. analysis has an immens
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @resd9: Lo conté por aquí, pero pronto se publica como artículo científico: la Segunda Ola comenzó en Cataluña en junio, mientras Torra,…
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @arguablywrong: What'd I tell you? https://t.co/dhKJK0aZ7X If you're willing to dig through GISAID and nextstrain data yourself, you c…
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @angie_rasmussen: THIS is how you report a new variant in circulating SARS-CoV-2: a thorough exploration of the evidence and all possibl…
RT @OpinionCovid: @hendopolis I wonder if we will learn from this and have strict travel quarantine next year? On existing evidence probabl…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
I wonder how many schools have asked their pupils and families not to travel abroad for half term ?
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @mab_sp125: O estudo em nenhum momento diz que a mutação causou segunda onda. Eles, no máximo, levantam a hipótese que essa variante pod…
@Kazz_UK 元の論文と説明です。 https://t.co/iIUhXTEWI7
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @OpinionCovid: @hendopolis I wonder if we will learn from this and have strict travel quarantine next year? On existing evidence probabl…
Lovely work describing the spread of a new SARS-Cov-2 variant around Europe. No evidence so far of biological effect of A222V mutation. Data indicates at least 5 introductions of variant into Ireland from July on. It accounts for half of Irish sequences in
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @4n4lisis: 20A.EU1 una nueva mutación del Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, proveniente de España, se está propagando rápidamente. Esta semana e…
RT @RebeccaRambar: 20A.EU1, une nouvelle variante de coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 originaire d'Espagne, s'est propagée rapidement dans une grande…
RT @OpinionCovid: @hendopolis I wonder if we will learn from this and have strict travel quarantine next year? On existing evidence probabl…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
@FinancialTimes Have a look at the first authors thread for a clearer picture of what this means and what we now know https://t.co/fl8KGcNpaF
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @OpinionCovid: @hendopolis I wonder if we will learn from this and have strict travel quarantine next year? On existing evidence probabl…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
DES DÉCISIONS LOURDES DE CONSÉQUENCES « On restera entre Européens» @EmmanuelMacron https://t.co/n8TYVG6VZE « Le tourisme (...) son sauvetage est une priorité nationale » @EPhilippe_LH https://t.co/y5FcAYH7Vn #Covid_19
@Collabblues D'ailleurs, Valls n'est pas revenu tout seul, semblerait-il... https://t.co/CGaMG9A5uF
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
@bergman_paula Olikohan tästä kyse? https://t.co/SwneWxne0M
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @RebeccaRambar: 20A.EU1, une nouvelle variante de coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 originaire d'Espagne, s'est propagée rapidement dans une grande…
O estudo em nenhum momento diz que a mutação causou segunda onda. Eles, no máximo, levantam a hipótese que essa variante pode transmitir mais rápido. Leiam as conclusões dos pesquisadores que fizeram uma análise primorosa e de alto nível científico. ht
Covid 19の改良型で ステルス性能とミサイル回避能力を向上させたのが欧州で流行 って事か #20AEU1
RT @OpinionCovid: @hendopolis I wonder if we will learn from this and have strict travel quarantine next year? On existing evidence probabl…
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @mab_sp125: Sobre as mutações de SARS-CoV-2 que tem se tornado predominantes na Europa https://t.co/NBrzCDfOwq Curiosamente são filoge…
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @angie_rasmussen: THIS is how you report a new variant in circulating SARS-CoV-2: a thorough exploration of the evidence and all possibl…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @MichaelYeadon3: Interesting draft paper on SARS-COV-2 variant 20A.eu1 https://t.co/SW7Syox0Xm No claims yet made for it but spreading m…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @oatila: Sobre a “variante nova” saída da Espanha: o coronavírus não varia muito, mas é esperado que surjam mutações. Ainda é cedo pra i…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
Sequencing the virus is good thing. Congrats to the authors. To the journalists: it is not clear whether this variant has a different behaviour. PS: there is no country to blame.
@sololeon @fedefedeson @luismarina @rubenalcazar os dejo el link a los resultados https://t.co/NpdHGb8abc
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @RebeccaRambar: 20A.EU1, une nouvelle variante de coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 originaire d'Espagne, s'est propagée rapidement dans une grande…
RT @CristinaDragani: A new variant of the #SARSCoV2 virus (20A.EU1) was discovered in Spain in summer, with a frequency of about 40% and ha…
RT @RebeccaRambar: 20A.EU1, une nouvelle variante de coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 originaire d'Espagne, s'est propagée rapidement dans une grande…
RT @PascalMarichal1: Il y a Raoult, Douste-Blazy et consorts médiatiques qui racontent n'importe quoi sur les variantes du virus (méchante,…
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
Bonjour @Damkyan_Omega Qu’en pensez-vous?
RT @firefoxx66: Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest…
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